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Track Records

1 - Essential Terms to know before you continue

Backtest: Backtesting is the general method for seeing how well a strategy or model would have done ex-post. Backtesting assesses the viability of a trading strategy by discovering how it would play out using historical data.

Net Profit: Net Trading Profits means the excess, if any, of USD at the end of the period of backtesting. The net profit does not include your original capital.

Max Drawdown: A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period.

Buy & Hold Return: Shows the Net Profit in USD if you had simply bought the asset, without ever selling it.

Profit Factor: The profit factor is defined as the gross profit divided by the gross loss (including commissions) for the entire trading period. A positive trading factor (Over 1) means that the system makes more profit than losses.

Commission Paid: The trading fees deducted from the profit due to the buy and sell orders during the time period.

Ratio Avg. Win / Avg. Loss: This ratio is the average profit on winning trades divided by the average loss on losing trades over the trading period.
For example, if the ratio is 5, it means that on average, during the trading period, losing trades have lost 1$, and winning trades have made 5$.

Avg. Bars in Trades: The number of 4-Hour Candles that a trade last. For example, if the Avg. Bars in Trade is 10, the trade lasted 10x4 = 40 hours.

2 - Bitcoin Strategy

Overview

Our Bitcoin Strategy is a Long-Term, Trend Following model. It made only 31 Trades over the past 5 years, with trades lasting on average 28 days.

Trend Following means flowing with the market. We chose a long term approach, as we are firm believers that cutting out the noise and focusing on the bigger picture, in years instead of days, with longer trades, will yield far better results than day trading. Catching the big runs when they happen, and staying out of the market when it crashes, is our fundamental principle.

There has been only 7 winning trades over the past 5 years, that lasted on average 4 months. Those 7 winning trades alone have eclipsed our small losses and brought over 5550% net profit, while Buying and Holding has returned only 1452%. That’s more than 3 times better returns than if you had bought Bitcoin at 2600$, and still held it without ever touching it.

7 winning trades in 5 years means we have on average one massive winning trade per year. And one only. It’s why it’s absolutely essential to commit on the long term, to be sure that when the monster-trade comes, you are able to catch it. Patience is key.

As you will see in the pictures below, it caught 100% of the bull run moves, and the rest was simply noise.

A system that worked only 23% of the time over the last 5 years has beaten the market 3-fold, while never losing more than 18% of its capital, whereas holding Bitcoin would’ve resulted in multiple -50% to -80% drawdowns over the years.

The Ratio Avg. Win / Avg. Loss is 16. That means winning trades win on average 16$ when losing trades lose 1$. This system works 1/5th of the time, but brings 16x more profit than losses, it’s not rocket science to figure out how this strategy is an incredible long-term option.

Our losing trades are simply attempts at catching the beginning of a trend, while choosing to automatically exiting very fast when there wasn’t any momentum. This Strategy has a fixed Stop-Loss at 3%, meaning the system will automatically exit the position if there is a loss of 3%, for optimal capital management.

Below you will find highlighted trades of a 5-Year Backtest provided by TradingView, where we will explain in a more visual manner the trend following concept of this Strategy.

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Key Takeaway: PATIENCE IS KEY. You must commit to the long term if you want to reap the potential rewards of this system. Once a year, when the big wave comes, we will be ready to ride it together, and when the market crashes, rest assured that we will be one of the first to exit, long before the panic and extreme drawdown.

3 - Ethereum Strategy

Overview

Our Ethereum Strategy is also a Long-Term, Trend Following model. It made 41 Trades over the past 5 years, with trades lasting on average 20 days.

Trend Following means flowing with the market. We chose a long term approach, as we are firm believers that cutting out the noise and focusing on the bigger picture, in years instead of days, with longer trades, will yield far better results than day trading. Catching the big runs when they happen, and staying out of the market when it crashes, is our fundamental principle.

There has been 15 winning trades over the past 5 years, that lasted on average 46 days. Those 15 winning trades have eclipsed our losses and brought over 9700% net profit, while Buying and Holding has returned only 1268%. That’s more than 7,5 times better returns than if you had bought Ethereum at 220$, and still held it without ever touching it.

15 winning trades in 5 years means we have on average three massive winning trades per year. It’s why it’s absolutely essential to commit on the long term, to be sure that when the monster-trade comes, you are able to catch it. Patience is key.

As it’s made with the same core parameters of our other strategy, it caught 100% of the bull run moves as well.

This Strategy worked 36% of the time over the last 5 years has beaten the market 7,5-fold, while never losing more than 23% of its capital, whereas holding Ethereum would’ve resulted in multiple -60% to -95% drawdowns over the years.

The Ratio Avg. Win / Avg. Loss is 9,6. That means winning trades win on average 9,6$ when losing trades lose 1$. This system works 1/3rd of the time, but brings 9,6x more profit than losses, it’s not rocket science to figure out how this strategy is another incredible long-term option.

Our losing trades are simply attempts at catching the beginning of a trend, while choosing to automatically exiting very fast when there wasn’t any momentum. This Strategy has a fixed Stop-Loss at 4%, meaning the system will automatically exit the position if there is a loss of 4%, for optimal capital management.

Below you will find highlighted trades of a 5-Year Backtest provided by TradingView, where we will explain in a more visual manner the trend following concept of this Strategy.

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Key Takeaway: PATIENCE IS KEY. You must commit to the long term if you want to reap the potential rewards of this system. Once a year, when the big wave comes, we will be ready to ride it together, and when the market crashes, rest assured that we will be one of the first to exit, long before the panic and extreme drawdown.

4 - Which one to chose ?

These are the results of a 5-Year Backtest provided by TradingView with a starting account of 1,000$.

Our recommendation

Ethereum trades more often, is more volatile, and has more upside potential. Bitcoin is the King of cryptocurrency, more liquid, more trusted and established.

We love and recommend both systems. They performed almost similarly. Ethereum has a little more upside potential in the next 3-5 years than Bitcoin, and did about twice as much profit long term. It also has beaten buy and hold returns by about twice the amount, that is why it’s price is slightly more expensive. The frequency of the Ethereum model is also twice as fast as Bitcoin if you like a little bit more action.

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